Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
