A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
